 Mobile Devices and the Internet  The failure of WAP services to seduce early adopters could have a lasting impact on mobile computing in the near and mid-term While, until recently, analysts predicted that next-generation mobile phone technology would lead future Internet access, negative user response and word-of-mouth could hamper the prospects of mobile phones in the overall computing landscape |
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 The Facts: After a much-hyped European debut in early 2000, early adopters give WAP services high negatives Introduction Over the past six to twelve months, WAP (the Wireless Application Protocol allowing compatible mobile phones to access a special kind of Internet server) has gone from being the next-anticipated tidal wave in technology to the less enviable role of the latest resounding flop in over-hyped gear. Articles questioning WAP have appeared in major news media worldwide, underlining the weaknesses and failures of technology and services alike. Yet the real lesson to be learned in this latest example of deflated hype has nothing to do with the technology itself. Where the buzz comes from Industry Buzz is a powerful thing. Buzz has made the Internet what it is today. The impact of real users exchanging their views has become an amazing (albeit totally uncontrollable) factor in technology development. Word-of-mouth is the major factor in adoption of a new or emerging technology, and it can also have a profoundly negative impact on the evolution of products that fail to meet users' expectations. As far as WAP is concerned, the keywords here are 'user expectations.' Convinced that they were holding the keys to the next huge wave in Internet development, most companies involved in bringing WAP to the market resorted to rather unfounded hype when presenting the potential of WAP-based online services. The negative results came in rapidly, and have been written up by press around the globe. Early adopters of the technology report their frustrations with clumsy and badly implemented first generation services: WAP is a turkey, WAP has hit problems. In short, WAP is not COOL any more. If one wants to be sarcastic, one could say: this is what happens when companies believe their own marketing hype. From the level of WAP technology in the market today, it is hardly surprising that users are somewhat underwhelmed: current generations of WAP phones sport ridiculously small screens, and, even worse, offer a user-interface which has been created for nothing more complex than setting the date, choosing the tune of your buzzer or entering a phone number in an extremely rudimentary phone book, using equally clunky input methods. The mere thought of surfing the Web on a device this inappropriate is enough to turn most potential users off. The excitement around WAP was not based on initial user response, but on idealized projections of a science-fiction type future where we are all constantly connected and busy exchanging video and sound, handling e-mail and voice messages and purchasing a variety of goods and services with our marvelous 'Flash Gordon'esque mobile communicators, hardly bigger than a wristwatch. WAP's recent encounter with user reality is bound to have a considerable impact on the future of mobile computing. It shows us that a phone is the perfect tool, well, to make and receive phone calls (and, perhaps, to send very short SMS type text messages). It is not, however, a computer. While it will become increasingly sophisticated, it will not replace handheld devices unless it becomes much more like them. What happens if you look at things the other way around? Currently, the smallest meaningful computing device is a Palm V, closely followed by other Palm models, Visors, and increasingly Pocket PCs. It is very hard to imagine a smaller device, not because technically this is not possible - but because it does not make sense. Until we significantly decrease the size of our hands and fingers, smaller handhelds are well-nigh useless, just as some of the tiniest mobile phones have become too small for many people. Implications The early problems of WAP have huge implications, since they challenge the widely publicized view of the connected phone. They do not challenge the fact that wireless Internet access is the way of the future - only the way in which we get on-line. Of course, phone companies are scrambling to invent the next generation do-it-all killer phone which doubles up as a hand-held computer. The question remains, however, whether these companies have the user interface and computing know-how to provide a good user experience. As a current mobile phone, handheld, and laptop computer user, I would much rather see a phone being built into my Palm V than to get a new phone-cum-organizer and WAP browser with yet another operating system, and another set of data exchange problems. We just don't need the hassle. The race is on for the next big predicted conversion: the marriage of mobile phone and organizer. Lots of companies will try, and finally somebody will get it right. The real question set to decide how the online future will shape up is simply: can one get a pleasing computing experience from anything smaller than a handheld or palm-size computer? The vision behind WAP was to capture the minds (and pocket books) of users who may not be on-line in any other way than via a phone. But there is already one established way of being on-line - the Web. The future of the Web may be on future generations of phones - but only if they manage to deliver basically the same user experience as the Web today. As for WAP services of the kind we know today, they will find a natural niche: the relatively limited set of applications and services which are crucial enough for users to put up with a user interface which makes Teletext look high-tech. 02Oct2000 ©2000 Pfeiffer Consulting |
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