Design as a marketing factor in computing environments has been an underlying trend for several years.

Decried as irrelevant by technology analysts, it has nevertheless become a major trend through the arrival of the iMac.

Design is now taking center stage in the operating systems market through the imminent arrival of MacOS X.

Design-consciousness has become a strong trend in consumer goods; users’ attitudes towards technology in general and their personal computing environment in particular may start evolving more rapidly than most computer companies are anticipating.

Analysis:

By now, everybody has noticed that, at least in the physical world, design has become a major trend. Computers have been part of this trend: the formidable success of the iMac and iBook, and the tidal wave of translucent products it has generated show that the computing world is undergoing significant changes.

Is a similar trend about to happen in the operating systems market? Technology experts would sneer at the idea - after all, what is the importance of looks when we are talking about something which used to be considered exclusively by virtue of its specs and functionalities.

That may be wrong. Design has been a major factor ever since the first graphical user interface was conceived. It may be useful to recall that when the first Macintosh arrived on the market, almost every computer expert under the sun stated that it was a cute toy, but hardly a serious computer. Icons, menus, the mouse, visual representation of user interface elements: what is today at the heart of our everyday computing experience on the average desktop PC was then considered an unnecessary luxury.

Today, Apple is getting ready to release MacOS X, which according to Apple’s CEO, will be shipped pre-installed on all computers built by Apple as of next year. MacOS X, among other things, sports an elegant new user interface dubbed Aqua (because of the translucent buttons and controls it sports).

This means that a year from now, the Macintosh-based computing experience as showcased in consumer products such as the iMac or the iBook, will come complete with an appropriate “designer OS” to complement the outside look of the computer.

We consider that this is an important step for the computing world: just like the graphical user interface fifteen years ago, the design-conscious aspects of MacOS X are widely criticized as being unnecessary and useless.

This is a mistake: while these aspects do not bring any essential new functionality, they provide a more cohernet user experience. In the image conscious consumer marketplace, this is essential. Design has become a major part of product strategies. The pricier Palm V organizer offers identical functionality to its cheaper (and cheaper looking) sibling, the Palm III. It has set the standard for what a sleek pocket organizer looks like, and it continues to sell briskly. As for the iMac, it has not only saved the company, it also proved to be a strong trendsetter in the computing market

Yes, we are talking about product design here, about a concern for qualities of physical and visual attraction. But this does not mean that a similar effect will not take place in the Operating System market. When consumers buy a computer, they increasingly buy an element of lifestyle and, as such, it needs to be a complete experience - including the look and feel of the user interface.

Implications

Of course this does not mean that overnight the Macintosh will overtake Windows in the consumer market. Apple has proven over the last few years that it can be an extremely successful niche player, but the logistics of the industry suggest that major power shifts in this market are unlikely in the short term.

What will happen, however, is that the arrival of MacOS X will increase market segmentation. Two or three years ago, Microsoft and Apple were the only relevant players, with Apple’s future prospects looking disastrous. In short, Windows had won.

Today, the situation is much less clear cut: Apple is doing well, Linux is gaining market share, and hand held devices have grabbed some significant market share.

The arrival of MacOS X will augment this process of segmentation. Whether the new operating system actually captures significant market share will not even be that important: if Apple deploys its marketing arsenal well, the main effect will be to stimulate the market, and to offer a new vision for the consumer computing experience. Even if it is criticized (which it will be) it will propose a new standard for the integrated computing experience.

Will the market follow ? It is too early to tell of course. But one thing is certain: Windows and MacOS will look distinctly different. And looks are very important in the world we live in.

Computer pundits will surely criticize this focus on design, just as they criticized the iMac and decried the iBook. Microsoft, for the time being, will stick with the tried and tested Windows user interface. Interestingly, Microsoft’s independent Macintosh division has already come up with a snazzier user interface for Internet Explorer 5 that does not look at all like its Windows counterpart.

The process of market segmentation is clearly under way. And since user expectancy evolves almost as fast as the technology these days, it is unlikely that it will stop at operating systems. Just as with any consumer product, we will be beginning to consider Operating System Style - not only functionality. Good design will become part of the functionality consumers buy - without even being conscious of it.

24Apr2000


©2000 Pfeiffer Consulting