 Internet Trends  Evolution of Internet content and services  The Internet is moving into a more mature phase with less and less room for groundbreaking developments The main usages of the web are well established, and are unlikely to evolve dramatically in the short-term future Soon, other connected technologies will provide a new set of possibilities and opportunities which will cover what the Internet does not provide today, such as satisfying entertainment experiences, or rich mobile services. |
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 Introduction Has the Internet peaked? This sounds incongruous, doesn’t it? Now, just to avoid misunderstandings: I am not saying that I think the Internet will stop growing, and mushrooming. I know the predictions; I have read the statistics. I think many of them are on target. The web will continue to provide amazing opportunities and considerable growth. So why, then, do I start an argument in the first place? Because something hit me the other day, and it has nothing to do with the stock market slump of the dot-coms either - well, at least not directly. It was just one of those little tidbits of information: lastminute.com, the website which offers special, last minute deals on a great variety of goods and services , has decided to close its UK website for the christmas period, and will use a printed catalogue to promote its deals instead. Ironic, isn't it? Ok, that's just one telltale sign of a newly found realism on behalf of a dot.com looking at the bottom line, but it ties in with a number of other informations which show that the web is no more the universally hyped crowd-pleaser it used to be a year ago. Teachers are reporting their students are getting bored with the web. Print publishers are closing down their web-sites. On-line content companies are producing print publications to increase their advertising revenues. All this looks a lot like realistic appreciation of the strengths and weaknesses of a new medium, following the initial unrealistic claims and expectations. Recognizing limitations So when I’m saying that the Web has peaked I mean that by now we have a pretty good idea of what it’s all about and what it can offer. We are also increasingly beginning to see its limitations and shortcomings. In one word, we are entering the next phase: realism. For the past four, five years, the web was, well, what we all know, a revolution, the best thing since sliced bread, the savior of humanity (well, maybe not quite) but anyway something which was so far out that nobody really knew where it was going. And that was a big part of its attraction: anything could happen. But by now we know. There is a good chance that the web will be the way it is today for a very long time (at least on an Internet timescale). Don’t get me started on broadband and how it is going to change everything: research from PriceWaterhouseCoopers suggests that due to the evolution in demand for bandwidth as well as the increasing data load transmitted over the Internet, we will live with bandwidth limitations for at least another ten to fifteen years. If you have tried DSL or cable, you will realize that it makes the current web much more bearable than a dialup connection - it does NOT, however suddenly turn your computer into an interactive TV set. It is not the promised revolution - it just makes for a pleasant web experience. period. By far not enough here to spark a new revolution - yet. The human factor But technology is only part of the problem. We all know that it is much harder to change human behavior than it is to change technology. And on a usability level, the web is evolving less and less. We are refining, of course, web sites are getting better - but no more quantum leaps here either. Why? Simple. By now, users have pretty much figured out what they want to use the web for: information gathering, community services, some shopping (but by far not every kind of shopping), game playing, or a mixture of all of the above… We also have increasingly accepted the fact that for many things we do, the web is not the best answer. What we have to realize is that due to the very nature of the Internet, things which are compelling can be literally all over the planet in a very short time (remember Napster?). By implication, this also means that whatever hasn't exploded on the market yet will probably take a long time to go significantly beyond its current levels of market adoption, at least in relative terms. So will the web go on developing ? Sure, and how, as more and more people all over the world will use it. There will be lots and lots of interesting, worthwhile, even ground-breaking developments on the web. The web is just, little by little becoming a mature market - and as such it has different laws and logic than an emerging technology. And, let’s face it, we live in a consumer society. What if the market out there just was becoming a liiiittle bit bored with all that overhyped Internet excitement? But lets look at it from the positive side: now that we know what the web is all about, we can start the real development. Not the mad experimentation any more, but the mature tools and services. And on that level, a lot is to be done… As for the earth-shattering, headline-grabbing developments which break new ground for technology, there is lots of stuff yet to come. Just ask those guys who work on G3 telephone services, interactive television, and a few other things in the labs out there… Implications |
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