The Pfeiffer ReportEmerging Trends and Technologies
Trend Area
Creative and consumer markets

Trend Type
Emerging technologies

Impact

Apple has announced Power Macintosh computers with the ability to write DVD Video discs compatible with consumer DVD players. Equivalent technology is currently still extremely costly

This will push DVD authoring as one of the fast growing market segments in creative computing, both in the consumer and in the professional market

By equipping certain Macintosh models with these drives, Apple is increasing its lead in the creative market. If the company manages to get this capability into consumer level machines, it should be able to grow its position as the easiest consumer level video production environment


Implications
DVDs are the ideal complement for DV camcorders, which are still lacking the appropriate low-cost output medium.

Two markets are to be watched in this respect: consumer level, “home-made” DVDs, and independent film production. Both areas could show explosive growth over the next few years.

Indeed, in the mid-term, this output mechanism could do for film-making what he LaserWriter did for desktop Publishing in the eighties: jump-start a new market and generate a profound mid-term impact on the production process



Introduction

Apple’s most far reaching product introduction at the recent MacWorld Expo went by relatively unnoticed by the media: Apple announced that the high-end models of Power Macintosh G4 computers, to be available in March, would be equipped with DVD “Superdrives” which can not only read and write CD-R and DVD-R discs, but can also create DVD Video discs for consumer-level DVD players. The company even demonstrated the necessary software to take the complexity out of DVD production: iDVD, which will be shipped free with the appropriate computers, and DVD Studio Pro, which is a professional level DVD authoring tool and will be sold by Apple as a natural complement to Final Cut Pro.

The hardware and software are both iteresting. The really important part, however, is that Apple has found a way to reduce encoding time for Video DVDs significantly. Usually, this operation requires specific and very costly hardware. To get around this problem, Apple engineers tapped the Velocity Engine, a processing subsystem included in Motorola’s G4 processor which can speed up certain computing intensive tasks considerably. As a result, the 766 Mhz PowerMac G4 will be able to handle the task of encoding video for DVD without an expensive add-on, at an encoding speed which, according to Steve Jobs, is about twice the time of the original material. In other words, a 30 minute film will take an hour to encode. Normally, software encoding would take at least ten to twenty times longer than the original footage - too long, in any case, to be practical.

Of course video professionals were immediately impressed with this prospect, but at the keynote, the DVD announcement didn’t generate nearly as much excitement as the sleek new Titanium PowerBook.

Nevertheless, what Apple is doing here may prove momentous: for the first time in history, there will be a cheap way of producing near-professional quality video output at a reasonable cost. Thanks to DV camcorders, we have been able to produce high quality video on the desktop for some time - but as soon as one wanted to get better output than the average VHS tape, things start getting complicated.

This announcement is of course strongly reminiscent of another big technology revolution initiated by the Macintosh platform: desktop publishing. In the mid-eighties, Apple introduced the LaserWriter, the first Postscript laser printer. All of a sudden, near-typeset output had come to the desktop. The rest, as they say, is history…

A revolution waiting in the wings?

This is a very intriguing situation. DVD authoring could indeed turn into tomorrows’ killer application for the personal computer. The semi-professional and professional creative markets will hardly need to be pushed to take the new technology for a spin. The promise of DVD quality output from your DV camcorder should get most creative minds spinning - for certain market segments, this is definitely revolutionary, and we can only guess as to the long-term changes it will bring in video and film production.

But don’t neglect the home user either. iDVD provides impressive ease of use for something which can be rather arcane using professional-level solutions. And iDVD is definitely a consumer product: as soon as Apple can get enough G4 processors and DVD “SuperDrives”to put them in next-generation iMacs, home cinema could take a totally new turn.

Once all these pieces are in place, Apple should be able to provide very compelling systems for consumer-level video-production, delivering all the elements of an integrated, easy to use solution. The question is just: how long will it take? Because timing will of course be crucial…

Mid-term impact: Emerging markets

On a more professional level, DVD authoring will create a flourishing market for independent filmmakers and video producers. The considerable potential of DV camcorders really only comes to fruition through the proper output medium, and their possibilities will be dramatically enhanced through the Video DVD option.

And of course this technology potential will inspire all sorts of creative spirits who may not yet be considering digital video as a medium. Just as with Desktop Publishing, there will be a groundswell of new users who are not (yet) video professionals, and who will push this technology into the most astonishing market segments. DVDs will be everywhere: Imagine real estate agents distributing DVDs with virtual tours of prime properties, and you get the picture…

There is yet another important angle to this: video on the web. By now, it has become quite clear that streaming video is bearable for a number of usages, but it certainly is no match for DVD-quality video viewed on a TV set. So? Well, what about independent content providers who would use the streaming video over the web more or less as promotion for their own DVD based productions, sold on-line, on the same site?

In the long term, DVD authoring combined with the Web could have a deep impact on video production. It could result in redefining distribution channels, and it could also provide increased credibility for content which would otherwise look relatively poor.

Of course it is too early to figure out all the ramifications this new technology will have - but one thing is for certain: it will prove very influential indeed.

And Apple in all this?

So, what about Apple in this picture? Well, it looks like the company has done it once again: it is about to leverage innovative technologies which will provide a strong push for the creative markets.

The big question will of course be how long Apple can keep this competitive advantage to the Macintosh platform. In his keynote, Steve Jobs claimed that the impressive encoding speed is due to clever usage of the Velocity Engine (aka AltiVec) technology in the G4 chip. If this is the case, Apple may have some advantage over the Intel-based market - although it is likely that competitive solutions to iDVD are going to come out sooner than Steve Jobs would like. One should also look out for consumer-level hardware compression options to emerge as soon as the market for DVD authoring gathers steam.

One thing is certain, PC manufacturers are going to jump on this as soon as they can: in a market where it has become more and more difficult to justify the ever more powerful processors, DVD encoding would provide ample justification for upgrading to latest-generation hardware.

Whatever the outcome of this ongoing race will be, DVD authoring is clearly groundbreaking: one of the more exciting new applications of computer technologies to have appeared in a long time.


22 Jan2001


©2001 Pfeiffer Consulting


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